"Deterrence Concepts in Light of the Iranian–Zionist Confrontation: A Realistic Reading of the Outcome

"Deterrence Concepts in Light of the Iranian–Zionist Confrontation: A Realistic Reading of the Outcome"

Dr. Hussein Yamani

Writer and Researcher in International Relations

In recent weeks, tensions have dramatically escalated between the Zionist entity and the Islamic Republic of Iran, marking one of the most sensitive and dangerous episodes in the history of their indirect conflict. While analyses have varied regarding which side emerged victorious, the facts suggest that the Zionists have, to some extent, reasserted the concept of deterrence and successfully achieved all their declared objectives.

Iran’s Reaction: Between Symbolism and Effectiveness

Iran has long threatened severe retaliation for any Zionist attack, especially those targeting its leadership or sovereign symbols. However, the recent response, despite its claimed strength, fell short of expectations. Iran, which has spent four decades preparing a comprehensive deterrent capability, failed to reach the level of real defense. It resorted to calculated strikes meant to send a message rather than effect a strategic change — a clear sign of fragility and weakness.

The Iranian response was largely symbolic, and Iran’s leadership quickly hinted at willingness for a ceasefire, underscoring its lack of desire for full-scale escalation. This came despite significant strikes against its officials, ministers, religious symbols, and even peaceful nuclear facilities.

The Declared and Hidden Objectives of the Zionist Entity

The Zionist entity openly announced several goals, including targeting sensitive Iranian sites deep inside Iran — all achieved without facing significant strategic deterrence. More critically, there were likely undeclared goals — such as undermining or even toppling the Iranian regime. This is evidenced by the widespread presence of spies and Zionist operatives, as well as the strike on an Iranian prison facility.

Although these deeper goals were not realized, the Zionists refrained from discussing them to avoid the appearance of failure, instead highlighting their intelligence and technological superiority.

Iran’s Relative Resilience Despite Infiltrations

One of the most striking outcomes of this round was the Iranian regime's relative resilience, despite the revealed presence of spies and infiltrators. This cohesion — though fragile — was sufficient to counter the psychological and media warfare launched by the Zionist entity.

Compared to other Arab regimes, Iran displayed greater capacity to manage crises internally, owing to its centralized security and intelligence institutions and strong internal mobilization mechanisms.

Why Didn’t the Occupation Enter a War of Attrition?

Despite its capabilities, the Zionist entity appears reluctant to be drawn into a prolonged war of attrition with Iran. It is well aware of its vulnerable home front and fears internal instability. For Tel Aviv, strategic stability is paramount. It therefore prefers short, targeted, and impactful strikes over drawn-out conflicts that could exhaust its resources.

Key Lessons from This Round

Iran must rebuild its deterrent capabilities anew, as greater confrontations lie ahead. The Arab states, in particular, must develop independent deterrence capabilities similar to those Iran has built over decades. Despite criticisms of Iran’s regime, it has established itself as a regional power that cannot be ignored — unlike many Arab regimes that still rely on foreign protection.

If Arab countries truly seek to safeguard their sovereignty and strategic independence, they must invest in comprehensive deterrent structures — including missile capabilities, air defense, and advanced intelligence — without relying fully on external powers.

Final Thought

The conflict between Iran and the Zionist entity is far from over. This round is only the beginning. The key takeaway is that deterrence, even when unused, earns international and regional respect. The weak, on the other hand, are always the fuel and victims of wars — even before they begin.

What breaks our hearts the most is that Gaza was not on Iran’s agenda or within its calculations, even though the war could have been used as a pressure card to halt the aggression in Gaza.

This article is in the path of Allah.

, and our final prayer is: All praise is due to Allah, Lord of the worlds.